{"id":464,"date":"2020-04-20T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2020-04-20T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/gbc.ng\/global-soccer-and-betting-ready-for-some-own-goals\/"},"modified":"2020-04-20T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2020-04-20T00:00:00","slug":"global-soccer-and-betting-ready-for-some-own-goals","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gbc.ng\/index.php\/global-soccer-and-betting-ready-for-some-own-goals\/","title":{"rendered":"GLOBAL: SOCCER AND BETTING \u2013 READY FOR SOME OWN GOALS?"},"content":{"rendered":"

While some have been getting to know and love football from Belarus and Nicaragua, the majority of fans, bettors, media companies and betting companies will be greatly anticipating the resumption of the Bundesliga (teams are back in training; 2 May is the earliest possible date) and also potentially the EFL. The latter announced today that 6 June could be the date of a full resumption after three weeks of training and preseason friendlies (from 16 May).<\/span><\/p>\n

The EPL has also committed to completing the season (but with no date set). The return of at least some mainstream football would fill a void in many people\u2019s lives and also provide some much needed mass-market sports for betting \u2013 likely with some unpredictable results too (that betting is c. 70% down, and online gambling is c. 15-20% down overall demonstrates the power as well as the limits of substitution). This seems like a good news story for all concerned, so what could possibly go wrong?<\/span><\/p>\n

The first point that we would make, fully acknowledged by soccer stakeholders but perhaps not sufficiently listened to, is that all of this depends upon government plans to ease the lockdown. Germany is ahead of the curve due to testing and healthcare investment so the Bundesliga plans are a little more concrete.<\/span><\/p>\n

In the UK there is no doubt that the government would like to ease lockdown as soon as practicable and that it is likely to see football as an important early beneficiary; but it is unlikely to materially alter the timing or nature of lockdown easing to suit the beautiful game, however much hope might be involved \u2013 we still have no idea when football in the UK can resume (which the EPL has more explicitly recognised), with spectators in the stands or not. So why we may hope for the best we must still plan for the worst (especially in terms of the fragile finances of many lower league clubs).<\/span><\/p>\n

The second point is broadcasting. In the UK, roughly 50% of EPL matches are televised domestically while only c. 15% of EFL matches are. Without attending spectators, the only way to get the football to the fans is via mainstream TV and\/or OTT streaming. Some of these have rights tied up, most do not.<\/span><\/p>\n

Equally, while lots of football stakeholders genuinely need the money, if soccer appears to be trying to profit from \u2018semi-lockdown\u2019 demand then this may backfire politically. Similarly, whether or not betting operators will be able to stream these matches is likely to be a hot potato, even though issues of supposed \u2018exclusivity\u2019 are likely to be relatively easily swerved. Pirating is also likely to be a big problem given the unprecedented level of output and the emergency nature of the solution.<\/span><\/p>\n

The third issue is betting data. Getting data \u2018off tube\u2019 (i.e. from the broadcasts) is dangerous given latency issues (there could be swarm of drones above stadia if countermeasures are not taken) and can also carry IP risks. The \u2018unofficial\u2019 scouting model will be broken because these scouts gain access by buying tickets \u2013 that wont be available. The official collection model would seem safe since these are accredited, but this pre-supposes that journalists will be allowed direct access and\/or soccer stakeholders get to decide which personnel is necessary: if access is strictly policed by an external authority then even official scouts may be considered superfluous to \u2018need\u2019 regardless of contract (we are still in force majeure territory). Similarly to broadcasting, the provision of official betting data might also be politicised as betting profiting from a public health crisis.<\/span><\/p>\n

Fourth, there will undoubtedly be a lot of pent up betting demand that could be from some pretty frustrated individuals. Betting operators will need to handle this with considerable care and responsibility to ensure that the well being of customers is paramount: this period of re-engagement is just as sensitive and extraordinary as the current period of substitution or abstention.<\/span><\/p>\n

Finally, and in reality the most visible element of our fourth point, lots of broadcast football matches will provide lots of opportunities for betting companies to market and advertise again, the UK \u2018whistle-to-whistle\u2019 ban notwithstanding. There are lots of ways that this too can blow up for a number of stakeholders, though betting operators will undoubtedly be the lightning rod. Similarly to pirated AV and scraped data, this environment may benefit the unscrupulous or unlicensed even if a critical mass of licenced operators behave appropriately.<\/span><\/p>\n

We should also consider the things that don\u2019t happen. If soccer (and especially racing, although this has a more complex value chain) is switched on before the highstreet, or if highstreet restrictions are such that retail betting cannot effectively function (e.g. social distancing in premises, stringent staff safety measures, phased reopening by business type, lockdowns for older people continuing \u2013 all plausible policy options) then the long-term viability of many LBOs will be shaken to an even greater extent than the loss of B2, in our view.<\/span><\/p>\n

The timing and nature of turning sports back on is fraught with risk on many levels and in no way will things look \u2018normal\u2019 quickly, if ever. To navigate the risks, all stakeholders (football, broadcast media, betting, rights holders, lawmakers, regulators, press and pressure groups) will need to focus on cooperation, sustainability and sensitivity and put the need for a quick return of income at all costs, or a chance to play political football, secondary to the bigger picture. Good luck with that.<\/span><\/p>\n

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